As noted in prior reports this year, Marin County, CA’s luxury segment is slow and currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced over $4 million sold in May 2009 and just 2 are currently in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). Of course, the luxury home slump exists throughout the country as affluent buyers wait for a signal to buy. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing dated June 14, 2009, click here. Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improved again this month. And while the stock market closed in the black for the year last week, this week has brought a correction. So, it appears we will continue to wait for the buying signal. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year median prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer er as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers first).

Curiously, inventory levels in Kentfield and Mill Valley have risen moderately (around 20%) over last year, while Belvedere’s inventory has skyrocketed by over 65%. Prediction: Belvedere prices will continue to recede markedly through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart.

[Click HERE for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.imaginemarin.com.]

This year has been peculiar in real estate. Obviously, prices are down in all categories. Obviously, short sales and foreclosures are featured on many buyers’ dance cards. And obviously, the market is suffering from a negative feedback loop fed by the media. I spend all day, every day, talking with prospective buyers, prospective sellers, and contemplative owners of real estate. Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing. Sure enough, since my last report, interest rates have jumped up almost a full point and the forecast does not look as though rates will fall back to the levels buyers were talking about just a short 2 months ago (let alone where they were three weeks ago). Meanwhile, it seems buyers are picking up on the FACT that rates are likely to climb and they are out in droves. 

Predictably, the low end is getting the most attention. In Novato, 72% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 44 out of 60 homes!). In San Rafael, 64% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 29 out of 45!). Incredibly, 11 homes in Novato sold last month under $400K, 9 more sold under $500K, and another 11 sold under $600K. That’s 31 Novato homes selling under $600K. Three years ago, under $600K, you would see perhaps 3 or 4 for homes on the market at any given time. These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009. I had 3 listings sell in late May and early June via FHA loans.

Standing back and looking at the higher price bands (especially in Southern Marin), things look a little different. Some sellers still suffer from pricing strategies that prevent them from realistically engaging with qualified buyers. These sellers are either: 1) NOT Sellers; or 2) are getting poor advice and direction from their agents. They will learn that "time on the market" is not their friend. Being a “smart seller” today means negotiating strong terms aimed towards a successful close of escrow within 30 days. Some sellers feel being the “smartest in the room” means either attempting to control the Buyer, and/or over-pricing, and/or countering offers in a way that evidences their desire to single-handedly change Marin County’s real estate market dynamics. While "one-in-a-million" buyers may exist, no buyer will pay $1 million for an $750K home. Indeed, we don’t see anybody offering $50 for a share of Citibank….

Changing gears, given current trades numbers, escrows, and open house activity, it seems likely that the traditional Summer slowdown in home sales will be modest as buyers continue pursuing those "value" properties. There is a sea of pent-up demand out there. The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley’s new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is about equal to 2008. If you would like to review a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know.

Inventory build-up is evident; we have 902 single family homes for sale (there were 830 last month and 643 in April) in the Highway 101 corridor (this number excludes Western Marin and beach community inventory as well as condos). Open houses this past Sunday were extraordinarily busy in all price ranges. While the upper end has shown sluggish sales, I am certain that there are buyers out there who are simply waiting for some sign from on high that the time to buy has arrived. Although, I don’t have the foggiest idea what form that sign may take. As always, well priced, updated homes in great locations are selling promptly.

The following table breaks down the current number of homes for sale and price ranges in Marin County’s HWY 101 corridor (e.g., Marin’s coastal communities are not included) in June 2009, along with the price ranges for each town and/or city.

At the request of a reporter for the London Financial Times, I recently put together some "year-to-date" numbers relating to the Marin County real estate market and compared them with last year’s numbers from the same period. The results were interesting and striking.

Between 1/1/08 and 6/11/08, we had 654 sales. Here are the averages from that period: Days on Market = 85, Price = $1.387 million, and Price Per Square Foot = $581.  

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com.]

Moving into the Summer, San Rafael CA’s real estate market is increasingly fueled by foreclosures and short sales. The low end (under $600K) has been hot (64% of homes in escrow). Meanwhile, the $600K to $800K price band has seen a surge in activity with 38% of these homes in escrow, up from 29% in May 2009. Increased affordability, low interest rates (although not as low as they were), an increased presence of FHA loans, and a shifting mindset are all resulting in a strengthening market. Additionally, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers is likely helping pull some buyers into the fray, despite the income limitations placed on this credit. It will be interesting to see if the government expands the credit to include ALL buyers and increases the credit amount to $15,000 — that would make a big difference for a lot of people. Overall, the number of homes on the market fell to 168 homes (from 179 last month). Meanwhile, 40 homes sold in May 2009 (up from 26 in April 2009).

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com.]

[Click HERE for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.Novato101.com.]

Real estate sales in Marin County’s luxury segment are currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced above $4 million is in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). But, as it stands, the ultra-luxury home sales segment is flat-lining in Marin County, CA. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click here (May 17, 2009 Report).Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improving: the West experienced a 42.5% jump in housing starts; the National Association of Homebuilders reported increased confidence (as high as it has been in 9 months); and construction and permits both rose last month (these are considered leading indicators on the macro level relating to housing stability). Nonetheless, the inertia of caution remains firm.

Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers).

Curiously, inventory levels in Kentfield and Mill Valley have risen moderately over last year, while Belvedere’s inventory has skyrocketed by over 60%. Prediction: Belvedere prices will continue to recede markedly through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart.

[click here for the rest of the article, courtesy of ImagineMarin.com.]

The leading indicator of future sales is the number of homes in escrow at a given time. We have experienced over 60 new escrows in five of the past seven weeks and over 70 for the past three weeks. May 2009 new escrows will likely surpass the levels of April and May 2008. As you can see from the below chart (which goes back 6 months), the number of escrow is up 105% and sales are up 30%. 

The upsurge in sales and escrows is seasonal, but also due to low 5% interest rates on conforming loans right now. We are also seeing a spike in home sales at the low end due to the increased FHA loan limit (now at $729,750). Given the activity we are seeing, it seems likely that the traditional Summer slowdown in home sales will be modest as buyers continue pursuing those "value" properties through the Summer. This year is shaping up to be one defined by "value."

 

As inventory collects in Southern Marin’s toniest locales (Belvedere and Tiburon), we are starting to see and hear about more offers being submitted. Certainly, sellers frustrated by the lack of activity have in some cases taken what they could get. Most recognize that our new economy, post-Equity Market Meltdown, has shifted the pricing and value expectations of buyers. While I perceive a high level of pent up buyer demand, buyers seem to be willing to wait things out. Much of this behavior is based on expectations of further price declines weighed against likely increased interest rates in the near to mid-term future. Most buyers I talk to recognize that the time to act, if not here yet, is close. Indeed, when buyers see value, they act. In fact, Morgan Lane Marin has 16 closings coming up in the next 10 days (TIburon and Belvedere).

Typical for this time of year, we have lots of new listings. There are currently 120 active listings in the 94920 zip code which covers Belvedere and Tiburon, including 29 homes priced over $5 million (although no homes in this price range are in escrow). Meanwhile, there is some limited activity in the lower / value price bands. While there were 7 sales in April 2009, 4 of these were homes priced under $2 million and another 2 sales were under $3 million. One interesting observation based on the below graph: not until March of this year did the median asking price for homes in Belvedere dip below that of 2008. Belvedere was the last Marin city to experience that shift (a full 6 months after Tiburon).

 

 

As discussed last month, many of the homes taken off the market during November and December 2008 been re-listed with adjusted prices (35 homes were withdrawn or expired in the final 2 months of 2008). Indeed, in light of the startling numbers relating to Days on Market and final sales price, sellers are well advised to price their homes aggressively (if you would like a chart depicting list price to sales price ratios based on the number of days on the market so far this year, please contact me by calling (415) 350-9440). See below for a comparison of sales statistics against May 2006.

 

There are currently 32 active properties listed for sale under $2 million in Tiburon and Belvedere — six more are in escrow. Below is a chart with up to date figures relating to the number of homes on the market in Tiburon and Belvedere, along with the number of homes currently in escrow.

 

Price Range	Total Active Properties	In Escrow
up to $2 million	32	16%
$2 million to $3 million	32	14%
$3 million to $5 million	27	7%
$5 million to $10 million	31	0%
$10 million and up	8	0%

Tiburon and Belvedere real estate that sold last month exhibited the following characteristics (compared with 2006, in parentheticals): 

-Number of Sales: 7 (2006=12)

-Average Days on Market: 123 (2006=53)

-Price: $2.21 million (2006=$3.1 million)

-Square Feet: 2,855 (2006=3388) 

-Price per Square Foot: $758 (2006=$910)

 

If you have any other questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service. 

p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so if you are looking to buy please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs.

The median price per square foot has dipped to about $575 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Down from April 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 21%. I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $768,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Based on last month’s sales total of 14 (we had 11 sales in March), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 11 months in Mill Valley, CA.

Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 133 (way up from 90 in February). The number of "bread and butter" homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 1. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) seems to be improving as we have 5 such homes currently in escrow to go along with a couple of sales last month. 

Of the 14 sales to close escrow in April 2009, they averaged 64 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.41 million with about 2,394 sq. ft. (or about $575 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

[Fr the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com, clich HERE.]